[Office Partner Information Center] When the Spring Festival was approaching, there was a "price increase" in the national home market. At that time, some analysts believed that this was more like the promotion method used by enterprises at the end of the year to deceive consumers as soon as possible. However, from the post-holiday situation, the cost pressure faced by the home market cannot be ignored. The sharp price increase is not the expected "wolf coming" game.
Chilling
After the Spring Festival, the news of the negative property market continued to come. First, the central bank's disguised rate hikes release a clearer tightening signal. Banks around the world have reduced or canceled mortgage interest rate concessions, and then the China Fund Industry Association has slammed into the investment of ordinary residential projects in hot cities with real estate prices rising too fast. The plan will not be filed for the time being. On February 14, the two authoritative economic data released: in January, the medium and long-term loans of the households representing individual housing mortgage loans increased by 629.3 billion yuan, accounting for about 35% of new loans, which was significantly narrower than the previous 40% or even more than half. In January, the national CPI rose by 2.5% year-on-year, setting a new high since 2014. Service prices, which largely depend on real estate price volatility, rose by as much as 3.2%, raising concerns about inflation.
The road map that brings the house back to the living property is becoming clear. Against the background of real estate tax stepping, the sales of housing enterprises peaked, the financing channels were blocked, and revenue and profit margins all faced downward channels. Everbright Securities Research reported that inflation will intensify, causing the central bank to further tighten the currency or raise the mortgage interest rate; the continued shrinking sales will cause large-scale capital outflows in the housing sector; some small and medium-sized housing enterprises may face the risk of payment due. 
Spring has come, the real estate industry has entered the "cold winter", and many real estate agents who have been staking through last year's sales frenzy are somewhat unrecognizable. A number of new chain stores around the outer ring line were listed in October last year. Nowadays, the renovation has not been completed, and the brokers of the old stores have been greatly reduced after the Spring Festival.
The home industry, which relies on the real estate development of this big tree, immediately felt the bitter chill. In the past few days, when reporters visited a home store such as Jin’s Home and Red Star Macalline, they found that the popularity of the warm-up after the holiday was not improved. After the first month of the month, the brand stores were still the door to the door. The showroom did not see a few customers in an hour, and the sales staff even took a nap. Poor management, how do home businesses spend the winter? The general answer turned out to be "price increases."
Sharp price increase
Liang Yan (a pseudonym), a daughter who has just turned 6 years old, is about to stay in a new home. After the Lantern Festival, she went to the Zhujiang Friendship Store in the hometown to buy a children's bed. It was found that a pine bed with a bookshelf before the Spring Festival actually rose by 600 yuan. “After a small year, I lost 8,000 yuan. I thought that after the Spring Festival, the merchants would increase the promotion. I didn’t expect it to rise to 8,600 yuan. The salesperson also said that this is the reserve price.†The salesperson of the Songbao Kingdom replied that The sharp increase in raw materials has forced manufacturers to raise the price of their products by about 10%-15%. “The price increase may have been higher, but the market environment is really bad. The boss has not adjusted the price of the product in the original color.â€
Ou Pai cabinet clerk said that after the Spring Festival, the wooden door has been raised by 15%. The price of the wardrobe has not been adjusted yet. It is estimated that it will follow in March and April. "The latest policy signal is bad for the property market. The boom in the home industry will definitely be affected. The company still wants to raise the price on a small scale to test the market reaction." A local Tianjin home furnishing brand with a light sales situation is not as busy as the peers. The price tag, but the 10% discount for the previous year was cancelled. "In fact, we don't want to raise prices. It is really cost pressure. The current passenger flow is half that of the same period last year."
It is understood that the primary driver of this round of home furnishing price increase is indeed raw materials. Since 2016, with the crazy rise in housing prices, coal, steel, and wood have been arrogant. When house prices were curbed, chemical raw materials, electronic components, packaging and printing received a price increase baton. In September last year, the industrial producers' price index (PPI), which had a negative growth of 54 months, was finally reversed, marking the official opening of the industrial price.
According to industry insiders, in fact, the price of household raw materials has increased to a certain extent every year, but enterprises can reduce costs by strengthening management and reducing intermediate links. However, from October to December 2016, the price of household raw materials rose by more than 10%, and sponges that needed to be used in the production of soft furniture once skyrocketed by 70%, and most home furnishing companies could not afford it. A person in charge of a decoration company said that according to the current trend, cement is expected to increase prices by 10% to 15% this year, wires are expected to increase by 5% to 10%, wood is expected to increase by 15% to 30%, and plastics are expected to increase by 30%. , aluminum is expected to increase price by 30%......
Industry shuffling
After the Spring Festival, the artificial shortage of home furnishing markets is another major incentive for the industry to raise prices. Ning Yuan (pseudonym), a Shandong decoration manager who posted the market, told the new financial observer that the average price of the woodworker was 300 yuan to 500 yuan per day for the craftsmen. However, due to the relatively harsh construction environment, young people in the same town are increasingly reluctant to choose this industry. "They would rather go to the restaurant when the waiter earns 2,000 yuan a month, and they don't want to work 300 days a year, 300 yuan a day painter... this is 90,000 yuan! With the skilled masters getting scarcer Labor costs will only get higher and higher, and consumers will have to bear it."
The increase in the price of transportation links and the increase in government environmental inspectors are also boosters for the overall price increase in the home furnishing industry. On September 21, 2016, the “Regulations on the Management of Overrun Transportation Vehicles†was officially implemented as “the most severe overrun limit in historyâ€. Many industries rely on “overload†to reduce the frequency of transportation and the hidden rules of compression costs are all broken. The cost per ton of transportation has increased by 100 yuan.
In fact, the high housing prices in hot cities have overdrafted the purchasing power of consumers. Like other real economy, the household industry has not experienced explosive growth in 2016, but it has been in a “cold winter†state. According to data from the Ministry of Commerce, the National Building Materials Household Climate Index (BHI) in January was 71.35, a decrease of 24.82 points from the previous month and a decrease of 7.17 points year-on-year. The sales of home building materials above designated size in the country was 48.26 billion yuan in January, a decrease of 50.70% from the previous month and a decrease of 30.89% from the same period last year.
The property market is no longer hot, in the face of overcapacity, rising costs, fierce competition, where is the home business in 2017? The industry believes that big brands and leading companies can also transfer costs to consumers through private customization and high-end product development. In addition to compressing scale, cooperating with giants, and transforming and upgrading, low-end brands have been unable to find better solutions. The reporter saw in the Xiqing Dengdian home building materials market that some of the second-floor home showroom doors were locked, and many of the exhibits stacked outside were dusty and unattended.
Some analysts said that the price increase is not necessarily a bad thing for the home industry in the process of transformation and upgrading. "If you can't buy cheap and inferior materials, small factories will not survive. It is also a survival of the fittest, which can promote industry optimization and progress." Guo Fanli, a researcher from the National Development and Reform Commission, predicts that the price increase of the entire home furnishing industry is very likely In the middle of this year, more than 80% of enterprises will raise their prices actively or passively.
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